Agenda – Day One
Background for Carbon Emissions Trading
- Evidence of Climate Change
- Consequences of Climate Change
Kyoto Agreement
- Annex 1 and Non-annex 1 parties
- Clean Development Mechanism
- Joint Implementation
- The international registry
- Banking and borrowing rules
Situation in important non-European Kyoto signatories
- Canada/Japan
- Russia/Ukraine
- US
European situation
- The burden sharing agreement
- EU/ETS and non-ETS sector
- Phase I rules
- Phase II rules
Situation for 2013 and onwards
- Europe
- Internationally
Market structure
- Exchanges and brokers
- Clearinghouses and OTC
- The CITL
Products
- Spot
- Futures
- CERs
- JIs
- Swaps
Agenda – Day Two
Fundamental analysis of carbon prices
- Comparison with other commodities
- The binary nature of final outcome
- Banking and future cost of reduction
- The need for probability distributions
- The unknowns: Canada/Ukraine/Russia
Links to other markets
- Gas/Coal
- Electricity
Intra-period price development
- Development in fundamental balance
- CER delivery profile
- Hedging balance
Developing a strategy to start trading
- Difference between hedging and speculation
- Developing sound hedging strategies
- Why should one speculate?
How to follow up
- The essentials
- Hedging
- Speculation
Financial modelling
- Cash flow of the different products
- An introduction to book-keeping
Problems and possible changes
- Windfall profit and border tax adjustment
- Carbon tax instead vs. cap-and-trade
- Absolute caps vs. relative caps
- Global sector agreements